The present article discusses the methodology of fore casting the winter wheat yield in early spring.The precipitations during the months of September –March were taken as a basisto determine thewater reservesin the soil, and to a great extend, the yield results. The dependence between winter wheat productivity (y, q/ha) and the precipitations during the month sof September–March(x,mm)is joined in the linear equation of the type:y=a bx.This method can be applied when fo recasting they ieldat the level of Republic,district, and agricultural farm. The second method of fo recasting the yield is based on the estimation of humidity reserves in the soil at the beginning of spring during crops vegetation phase by considering the multi-annual average amount of precipitations during the months of April – June.This method is applied when fo recasting the yield on the field and crop rotation levels.The deviation of the obtained harvest with the estimated one constitutes, as a rule, ±15-25%. It hasbeen established that the intensification of agriculture and the implementation of advanced technologies lead to a more rational use of water reserves from the soil that contribute to the formation of theyield. In the conditions of intensive agriculture (1971-1994),the winter wheat consumes7.3-9.4 mm of water in order to form 1 q of grains.Soil degradation, non-observance of the crop rotation system and of the technologies used for crop cultivation resultin the intensification of pedologic drought,the increase by 1.3-2.0 times of the water consumption for the formation of a production unit, and the reduction of the harvest by1.3-1.5 times. In order to obtain higher yields in steppe conditions, it is necessary to direct the agro-technical, agrochemical and pedo-ameliorative processesto soil fertility conservation and rational use ofsoil humidity.