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330.43:336.748.12(478) (2) |
Economie matematică (126) |
Monedă. Sistem monetar. Bănci. Bursa de mărfuri (774) |
SM ISO690:2012 SLOBOZIAN, Dorin, UNGUREANU, Mihai. Money power in predicting inflation the case
of the Republic of Moldova. In: Analele Institutului Naţional de Cercetări Economice, 2013, nr. 1, pp. 227-234. ISSN 1857-3630. |
EXPORT metadate: Google Scholar Crossref CERIF DataCite Dublin Core |
Analele Institutului Naţional de Cercetări Economice | ||||||
Numărul 1 / 2013 / ISSN 1857-3630 /ISSNe 1857-3630 | ||||||
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CZU: 330.43:336.748.12(478) | ||||||
JEL: E31, E41, E47, E52 | ||||||
Pag. 227-234 | ||||||
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Rezumat | ||||||
The aim of this paper is to test the money power in the process of forecasting inflation in the Republic of Moldova. For this, we have constructed three money indicators, which later are used either together or separately in six econometric models. Besides these models, there are also two simple statistical ones: random walk and autoregression,
which are considered as benchmark models. After evaluating the forecasting accuracy using several standard statistical measures, the main conclusive findings are that money dynamics does help in bringing more accuracy to inflation forecast. The money growth, among the other indicators developed and used in this paper, proved to be the most informative about the future inflation over the medium term horizon. |
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Cuvinte-cheie inflation, money, econometric models, Statistical Models, Forecasting, Moldova, forecasting accuracy. |
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