Another approach to spatial modeling and temporal analysis of late spring frosts for Republic of Moldova territory
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BOTNARI, Aliona, CRIVOVA, Olga. Another approach to spatial modeling and temporal analysis of late spring frosts for Republic of Moldova territory. In: Present Environment and Sustainable Development , 2024, nr. 1(R), pp. 14-15. ISSN 1843-5971.
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Present Environment and Sustainable Development
Numărul 1(R) / 2024 / ISSN 1843-5971 /ISSNe 2284-7820

Another approach to spatial modeling and temporal analysis of late spring frosts for Republic of Moldova territory


Pag. 14-15

Botnari Aliona, Crivova Olga
 
Moldova State University
 
 
Disponibil în IBN: 16 iunie 2024


Rezumat

According to international climate studies, the states that have a geographical location at temperate latitudes have been facing the consequences of climate change in recent decades, in response to changes in the atmospheric composition. For example, Easterling in his 2002 study found that for most of the US the frost-free period is longer, with the first frost in fall occurring later and the last frost in spring occurring earlier. In this study, we analyze the spatial and temporal variations of dangerous frosts, on the territory of the Republic of Moldova for the period 1991 - 2020, a period, which we divided into two sub-periods of 15 years each for comparison, using several methods of analysis. We calculated statistical parameters such as mean, min, max, standard deviation for the date and intensity of dangerous frosts. We used the Mann-Kendall statistical test to evaluate the trends of the set of data values. Obtaining valid final models of the analyzed climate phenomenon requires the correct choice of mapping techniques. Since the global methods are inaccurate interpolators (the predicted value of the climatic data z(x) does not coincide with the real one recorded at the weather stations, the best approach is the mixed one, combining global and local interpolators. In a first step, the spatial trend of the analyzed variable is determined by applying multiple regression, with the help of Statgraphics 15 software, after which it is extracted from the initial values. The residuals are interpolated by applying the kriging methodology (ordinary kriging), after which the interpolated residuals were added to the spatial trend, resulting in the spatial representation of the analyzed variable. In accordance with the warming in the last decades, during the study period we find statistically significant increasing trends of the intensity of dangerous frosts in the northern part (w.s. Briceni, Cornești - for the period 2006 - 2020) and an advance of the last frost in the air towards the period warm of the year (w.s. Fălești and Ceadîr Lunga) On the territory of the Republic of Moldova, the intensity of dangerous frosts, in the spring, can be between -0.1 and -4˚C, and this manifestation takes place during the period of active vegetation, which leads to the damage of agricultural crops and the reduction of productivity.