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SM ISO690:2012 MOTELICĂ, Vitalie. Seasonal fluctuations of prices in the Republic of Moldova. In: Simpozion ştiinţific al tinerilor cercetători , Ed. 14, 22-23 aprilie 2016, Chişinău. Chişinău Republica Moldova: Editorial-Publishing Department of ASEM, 2016, Ediţia 14, Vol.1, pp. 239-244. ISBN 978-9975-75-823-9. |
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Simpozion ştiinţific al tinerilor cercetători Ediţia 14, Vol.1, 2016 |
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Simpozionul "Simpozion ştiinţific al tinerilor cercetători" 14, Chişinău, Moldova, 22-23 aprilie 2016 | ||||||
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Pag. 239-244 | ||||||
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Implementing effective inflation targeting strategy requires the knowledge of all the factors that are responsible for the inflationary process. The consumer price index includes sub-components, such as trend or seasonality that makes it difficult to analyse the inflationary pressures for the monetary policy decision making. The annual inflation indicator eliminates these deficiencies to a certain extent. However, in the decision making process and for communication purposes, monthly inflation is used as well which, first must be seasonally adjusted to provide information relevant for monetary policy. In this study we addressed the seasonality issues for both CPI, and for the main subcomponents of this indicator in Moldova to track the sources responsible for seasonal fluctuations. The study established that the seasonal factor has moderate positive values in the first 4 months of the year, and then in the summer months it becomes negative. During the fall and in December, the seasonal factor is back in positive territory. Furthermore, the largest impact on seasonal fluctuations is determined by the seasonal factor of food prices. |
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Cuvinte-cheie Seasonal factors, CPI inflation, monetary policy, inflation targeting strategy |
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