The EU’s security architecture has been gravely undermined since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, triggering concerns whether the Kremlin could mobilize militarily in other regions as well. Of notable importance is the Republic of Moldova and its territorial dispute with the separatist and pro-Russian region of Transnistria. While some recent assessments highlight the prospects of entanglement in the war in Ukraine, this paper argues that such likelihood is comparatively low, with both Chisinau and Tiraspol recognizing that any involvement or deterioration of bilateral frictions could further destabilize the region. However, although Moldova declared military neutrality, the Sandu administration has reinforced the European vector as the consequence of the war in Ukraine, having gained EU candidate status. That, in turn, could motivate the Kremlin to engage in hybrid warfare to sabotage Chisinau’s European integration project, requiring the EU to increase its commitment to make Moldova align with the EU institutional frameworks.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has fueled security concerns across Europe, given the Kremlin’s continued military aggression against Kyiv, violations of territorial integrity, war crimes committed by the Russian armed forces, an influx of Ukrainian refugees, as well as attacks on critical infrastructure and other forms of retaliation against those supporting the Ukrainian government and its people. This not only pertains to EU institutions and member states, but also those caught in the middle between the EU and Russia. Of recent significance is Moldova not only due to its adjacency to Ukraine, but also, more pressingly, because of the unresolved dispute with Transnistria. Despite bilateral and multilateral commitments, there is still no final peace settlement, let alone any prospects of reintegration. This in turn has triggered apprehensions in the EU whether Russia would launch a military campaign against Moldova too for the sake of gaining power projection and manifesting itself as the self-proclaimed protector of Russian-speaking communities in Europe. Considering the contemporary status quo of Moldovan-Transnistrian conflict settlement process, I argue that while the unresolved dispute does constitute a distinct security threat to Moldova and the EU in view of the Russian troop deployments and the arms depot in Cobasna, the prospects of entanglement in the war in Ukraine remain comparatively low. As both Moldova and Transnistria recognize that heightening tensions and Russian involvement would result in the expansion of the war to Southeast Europe, Chisinau and Tiraspol signaled that they would opt to stay out of the war. This raises the questions as to how and why Russia’s war in Ukraine nevertheless influences the political objectives of Moldova and Transnistria; and how the EU responds to these systemic pressures. This paper proceeds as follows. First, it localizes the debate about the implications of the war in Ukraine for the Moldovan-Transnistrian dispute in the political discourse, highlighting assessments of scholars and policymakers alike. Second, it investigates empirically the security threats deriving from the wider ramifications of the war in Ukraine. Prime emphasis is given to how Moldova and Transnistria attempt to not become entangled and how the EU responds to the Moldovan-Transnistrian dispute under the new status quo defined by the war. By way of conclusion, the paper argues that as long as the EU continues its support for the Moldovan government and Chisinau and Tiraspol are able to avoid entanglement and reduce tensions, the prospects of the expansion of the war to Moldovan territory is comparatively low, despite a rising threat perception at both banks of the Dniester.