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SM ISO690:2012 RĂILEANU, Valentin, COJOCARI, Rodica, CRIVOVA, Olga. Duration and magnitude of droughts in Republic of Moldova. In: Present Environment and Sustainable Development, Ed. 17, 3 iunie 2022, Iași. Iași: 2022, Ediția 17, pp. 29-30. |
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Present Environment and Sustainable Development Ediția 17, 2022 |
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Simpozionul "Present Environment and Sustainable Development" 17, Iași, Romania, 3 iunie 2022 | ||||||
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Pag. 29-30 | ||||||
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The purpose of the research was conditioned by the increase in the frequency and intensity of droughts during the years 1981-2020. The Republic of Moldova, located in the South-Eastern part of Europe, is often affected by this unfavourable climatic phenomenon, which is largely generated by climate change and less by the natural variability of the climate. 2020 was a very dry year. According to the General Inspectorate for Emergency Situations, the losses in agriculture due to the drought amounted to about 7.2 billion lei. The SPI Standardized Precipitation Index and the SPEI Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index, developed by McKee and S.M. Vicente-Serrano and recommended by the World Meteorological Organization for drought assessment, were chosen from the multitude of climate indices used to assess droughts. SPI and ȘPEI were calculated from the data of 17 meteorological stations at the (accumulated) time scales of 3, 6 and 12 months. The negative values reflect the periods of time with moisture deficit, and the positive ones - with excess moisture in the soil. The SPI and SPEI charts from the north (Balti), the center (Chisinau) and the south (Cahul) of the country are presented as an example. Increasing the accumulation period from 3 to 12 months increases the duration, but decreases the frequency (number of droughts) and monthly intensities. It also decreases the magnitude, defined as the sum of the monthly intensities. The magnitude is expressed by the area on the charts for the dry period. The decrease in the frequency of droughts is explained by the consolidation of small periods with excess moisture. From the structural viewpoint, a drought has a beginning, then a development with an increasing intensity, but also with some decreases on the small time scales, and the end. There are several types of drought classifications: meteorological drought, when dry weather dominates an area; agricultural drought, when crops are affected by drought; hydrological drought, when low water supply is evident in the water supply system; socio-economic drought; ecological drought. The U.S. Drought Monitor rates drought intensity from abnormal dry (D0) to exceptional drought (D4). McKee classifies droughts as mild (0 <SPI <-0.99), moderate (1.00 <SPI <-1.49), severe (-1.50 <SPI <-1.99) and extreme SPI <-2 .00. In the paper the classification was made after Mckee. It is obvious that at different stages of development the extreme drought changes from meteorological drought to agricultural and sometimes hydrological one, each of them covering certain parts of the total duration of the drought. Short-term weather forecasts of 7-10 days cannot effectively predict droughts. Drought development monitoring and analysis can be used in forecasting drought intensity next month, for example, through the ARIMA procedure. The spatial distribution maps of the magnitude of the drought in 2020 are presented as an example |
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Cuvinte-cheie standardized climate indices SPI, SPEI, drought duration and magnitude |
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