Structural change, energy conflicts and the EU at the beginning of the XXI century
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2022-04-01 22:06
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620.9(4) (4)
Economia energiei în general (550)
SM ISO690:2012
PURICĂ, Ionuţ. Structural change, energy conflicts and the EU at the beginning of the XXI century. In: Energetica Moldovei. Aspecte regionale de dezvoltare, Ed. Editia II, 2012, 4-6 octombrie 2012, Chișinău. Chișinău, Republica Moldova: Institutul de Energetică al Academiei de Științe a Moldovei, 2012, Ediția II, pp. 243-251.
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Energetica Moldovei. Aspecte regionale de dezvoltare
Ediția II, 2012
Conferința "Energetica Moldovei"
Editia II, 2012, Chișinău, Moldova, 4-6 octombrie 2012

Structural change, energy conflicts and the EU at the beginning of the XXI century

CZU: 620.9(4)

Pag. 243-251

Purică Ionuţ12
 
1 Committee of the World Energy Council Bucharest,
2 Institute of Economic Forecasting - National Institute of Economic Research "Costin C. Kiriţescu"
 
 
Disponibil în IBN: 10 ianuarie 2018


Rezumat

When one was considering conflicts in the second half of the twentieth century in Europe the first thing comming to mind were the 40000 tanks of the Warshaw Pact ready to reach Lisbon in a short time, and the military countermeasures of NATO. In the mean time USSR had disappeared and after 11.Sep.2001 it became clear that an activity that was done by governments has been privatized: War is privatized. Individuals and organizations may do war on governments, unfortunately with significant results. War is not the same anylonger. For instance, instead of bombing a strategic objective (say a refinery) for 5 hours, socio-economic conditions are created for it to economically decay by itself in five years. Its only the time constant that is different; the result is the same. Among the socio economic conditions are the availability and price of energy. Thus, energy becomes more important in the above context being also looked at from a security point of view, this is also stressed by the EU Directive 2008/114/CE of Critical Infrastructures. In order to better understand the new behavior related to todays dynamics one needs to go beyond the usual linear thinking of twenty years ago and consider the benefits of using (understanding first) nonlinear models. We will, in what follows, make some considerations on the nonlinear behavior in todays conflicts (not to be understood as merely military ones) and pass on to a brief observation of the convergence of EU energy policy, exposed to a trend of facing a supply side driven energy situation. The  paper ends with an analysis of the possibility to introduce an index aimed at rating the deviation of each member country from a potentially unique, Commission driven, EU energy policy that will represent a first step toward a demand side driven energy situation in the EU. If the financial policy of the EU has resulted into a real unification based on the introduction of the Euro and of a Central Bank for the whole EU, and if labour policy is developing toward a blue working card valid for the whole EU, the energy policy is only now starting to strive toward a unique approach. Energy was not exactly having an ‚acquis communautaire’ in the sense of a convergent member countries behavior. The important thing to also take into consideration is that in time of crises the role of governments is increasing and the existence of an integer that is greater than the sum of its parts, i.e.the EU, may represent a facility to be seriously considered by the coroprations in the EU economic space. The creation of a sinchronisation platform among CE policies and corporative ones related to energy may bring value to the situation of the energy systems of the EU. The market approach based on unbundling inside the EU, laking a coherent correlation at the governmental level (local and EU) may not be resilient enough to face strong government controlled energy suppliers both in Russia and in North Africa. With a proper rating index we would at least know where we stand, thus making it easier to decide response measures for development.