О методах анализа сейсмической опасности

Deleu Vasile; Буртиев Рашид

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DELEU, Vasile, БУРТИЕВ, Рашид. О методах анализа сейсмической опасности. In: Buletinul Institutului de Geologie şi Seismologie al AŞM, 2013, nr. 1, pp. 66-81. ISSN 1857-0046.

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Buletinul Institutului de Geologie şi Seismologie al AŞM

Numărul 1 / 2013 / ISSN 1857-0046

О методах анализа сейсмической опасности

Pag. 66-81

Deleu Vasile, Буртиев Рашид

Disponibil în IBN: 14 decembrie 2013

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In calitate de măsură a hazardului seismic se propune probabilitatea că în punctul geografic (phi, lambda), in perioada de timp t, se întâmpla n şocuri seismice, m din care cu intensitatea (nu mai mică) I la puterea k. A fost efectuată o analiză comparativă a metodelor existente de evaluare a hazardului seismic. Se arată, că metoda propusă este cea mai informativă din punct de vedere al strategiei de constructie seismorezistentă. A fost elaborat modelul probabilistic al regimului seismic, iar cu aplicarea metodei Monte-Carlo - un catalog sintetic de cutremure de pămint.

As a measure of seismic hazard the probability P(t,n,m,I^k), that in a certain location of the Earth’s surface with geographical coordinates (phi, lambda), during time t, will occur a certain number of n shakes and m of their with intensity (not less) I^k is proposed. The comparative analysis of existing methods of seismic hazard estimation was carried out. It is shown that the proposed method is the most informative for strategy of a seismic construction. The probability model of a seismic regime is builded. By means of a Monte-Carlo method the synthetic catalogue of earthquakes was elaborated.

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