Hepatitis C Elimination in Moldova Is Feasible and Cost-Saving: A Modeling Study
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AARON, Alec, ZHONG, Huaiyang, HIEBERT, Lindsey, ZHUO, Yueran, ADEE, Madeline G., PARASCHIV, Angela, STRATULAT, Silvia, WARD , John W., CHHATWAL, Jagpreet. Hepatitis C Elimination in Moldova Is Feasible and Cost-Saving: A Modeling Study. In: Journal of Infectious Diseases, 2023, vol. 228, pp. S189-S197. ISSN 0022-1899. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiad138
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Journal of Infectious Diseases
Volumul 228 / 2023 / ISSN 0022-1899 /ISSNe 1537-6613

Hepatitis C Elimination in Moldova Is Feasible and Cost-Saving: A Modeling Study

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiad138

Pag. S189-S197

Aaron Alec1, Zhong Huaiyang123, Hiebert Lindsey4, Zhuo Yueran5, Adee Madeline G.6, Paraschiv Angela7, Stratulat Silvia8, Ward John W.4, Chhatwal Jagpreet12
 
1 Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston,
2 Harvard Medical School, Boston,
3 Virginia polytechnic institute and state university,
4 Task Force for Global Health, Decatur,
5 Mississippi State University,
6 University of California, Berkeley,
7 ”Nicolae Testemițanu” State University of Medicine and Pharmacy,
8 National Agency for Public Health
 
 
Disponibil în IBN: 25 septembrie 2023


Rezumat

BACKGROUND: Moldova, an upper-middle-income country in Eastern Europe, is facing a high burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV). Our objective was to assist the National Agency of Public Health of Moldova in planning to achieve the World Health Organization's HCV elimination goals by 2030. METHODS: This study adapted a previously developed microsimulation model to simulate the HCV epidemic in Moldova from 2004 to 2050. Model outcomes included temporal trends in HCV infection, prevalence, mortality, and total cost of care, including screening and treatment. We evaluated scenarios that could eliminate HCV by 2030. RESULTS: Multiple strategies could lead to HCV elimination in Moldova by 2030. A realistic scenario of a 20% annual screening and 80% treatment rate would require 2.75 million individuals to be screened and 65 000 treated by 2030. Compared to 2015, this program will reduce HCV incidence by 98% and HCV-related deaths by 72% in 2030. Between 2022 and 2030, this strategy would cost $17.5 million for HCV screening and treatment. However, by 2050, the health system would save >$85 million compared to no investment in elimination efforts. CONCLUSIONS: HCV elimination in Moldova is feasible and can be cost saving, but requires resources to scale HCV screening and treatment.

Cuvinte-cheie
health economics, Liver cancer, Mathematical modeling, screening, treatment