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SM ISO690:2012 БУРТИЕВ, Рашид, GRINWELL, F., SPATARI, Ghenadie. Исследование временных рядов метеоданных города Штефан-Водэ. In: Buletinul Institutului de Geologie şi Seismologie al AŞM, 2012, nr. 2, pp. 84-103. ISSN 1857-0046. |
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Buletinul Institutului de Geologie şi Seismologie al AŞM | ||||||
Numărul 2 / 2012 / ISSN 1857-0046 | ||||||
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Pag. 84-103 | ||||||
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The time series of meteodata in Stefan-Voda city are analyzed. Autocorrelation procedures are defined periodical components for all time series. The spectral analysis shows the peak on
frequency fc=1/12 that corresponds to seasonal periodical component with 12 month period. Future behavior forecasting is carried out on exponential smoothing and ARIMA models time series.
Prediction is calculated using the proposed approach that is based on multiplicative Simple seasonal, Winters and ARIMA models. The values of statistical parameters of residual series: RMSE, MAPE, MAE, MaxAPE, MaxAE BIC is optimal for simple seasonal and Winters models. |
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