Long-term projections of some climate-related diseases in the Republic of Moldova
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2024-04-23 11:09
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613.12:551.583(478) (1)
Hygiene generally. Personal health and hygiene (564)
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CROITORU, Cătălina. Long-term projections of some climate-related diseases in the Republic of Moldova. In: Individual, family, society – contemporary challenges, 6-7 octombrie 2021, București. București, România: 2021, p. 29.
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Individual, family, society – contemporary challenges 2021
Conferința "Individual, family, society – contemporary challenges"
București, Romania, 6-7 octombrie 2021

Long-term projections of some climate-related diseases in the Republic of Moldova

CZU: 613.12:551.583(478)

Pag. 29-29

Croitoru Cătălina
 
”Nicolae Testemițanu” State University of Medicine and Pharmacy
 
 
Disponibil în IBN: 13 martie 2024


Rezumat

Objectives. Climate change is a growing risk factor that affects the human health, the ecosystems and the economic growth. It has a significant impact on human health status since the latter is influenced by environmental conditions which comprise 20-25% of all health-related factors. Research linking extreme air temperature and health effects has recently become a priority for the scientists. The degree of risk may be related to individual characteristics, extreme-temperature exposure and human adaptability to climate conditions. The aim of the research was to establish prognosis for some diseases, which may be influenced by climate change through their long-term projections. Material and methods. The prognosis was designed on three global long-term scenarios (2081-2100), related to greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway) - RCP8.5; RCP4.5; RCP2.6. The prognosis for the diarrheal cases in adults was determined in May, June and October, whereas September and October – in children. The prognosis for non-communicable diseases resulted in the number of deaths recorded during the summer time (June-August) of 2001-2010. Results. This study conducted developing projections on the incidence of diarrheal diseases (adults and children) and deaths due to three nosological non-communicable forms (cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, and digestive diseases) in the Republic of Moldova. The global greenhouse gas emissions scenario, called RCP8.5 (the worst-case scenario due to the presumed use of global fossil fuel consumption) is going to be related to the highest number of diarrheal events, occurring in July and October, among the overall population (about 232 and 186 cases, respectively). A great number of diarrheal cases is predicted for the CPR4.5 scenario in the same months (74 cases and 77 cases, respectively). The most favourable CPR 2.6 scenario assumes a reduced number of cases. A higher incidence of diarrheal cases in children are expected in the CPR8.5 scenario both in September (215 cases) and in October (176 cases). In the CPR 4.6 scenario, 118 cases are assumed to occur in September, then decreasing to 77 in October. A higher incidence is also predicted for CPR 2.6 scenario in September, which may decrease to 21 cases in October. The assessment of projections of future changes in the number of deaths indicates a potential increase due to cardiovascular diseases. Thus, an increase in the number of deaths by 18 cases is predicted in the CPR8.5 scenario, by 10 cases in the CPR4.5 scenario and by 5 cases in the CPR8.5 scenario. A high mortality rate due to respiratory diseases will be registered in the CPR4.5 scenario – 5 cases, whereas in the RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios – 3 cases each. The number of deaths due to digestive disorders will show a reversed number of cases compared to the scenarios, with the highest number in the RCP2.6 scenario (1.3 cases), followed by the RCP4.5 scenario (1.2 cases) and the lowest one being in the CPR8.5 scenario (0.6 cases). Conclusions. The impact and nature of climate change effects on human health requires an awareness-raising approach among the society as a whole, as well as providing truthful evidence-based measures.

Cuvinte-cheie
health, climate change, long-term projections