Risks determined by the level and trend of external debt in Romania
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2024-02-19 19:16
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MILEA, Camelia. Risks determined by the level and trend of external debt in Romania. In: Competitivitatea şi inovarea în economia cunoaşterii: Culegere de rezumate, Ed. Ediția 27, 22-23 septembrie 2023, Chişinău. Chişinău Republica Moldova: "Print-Caro" SRL, 2023, Ediţia a 27-a, Volumul 1, p. 31. ISBN 978-9975-175-98-2.
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Competitivitatea şi inovarea în economia cunoaşterii
Ediţia a 27-a, Volumul 1, 2023
Conferința "Competitivitate şi inovare în economia cunoaşterii"
Ediția 27, Chişinău, Moldova, 22-23 septembrie 2023

Risks determined by the level and trend of external debt in Romania

JEL: F31, F32, F34, G01

Pag. 31-31

Milea Camelia
 
Romanian Academy, Center for Financial and Monetary Research „Victor Slăvescu”
 
 
Disponibil în IBN: 14 februarie 2024


Rezumat

The article2 presents some risks of external debt in Romania generated by its structure and characteristics. Given the rise in the share of short-term external debt in Romania, the associated risks increase, among which there are the augmentation in the volatility of the exchange rate of the national currency, the advance in the probability of a currency crisis and of the vulnerability to interest rate fluctuations. The author calculates the indicators referred to by Reinhart, C. and Rogoff, K. (2009) to see what is the situation of Romania's indebtedness, if there is a vulnerability to an external debt crisis. In addition, the author also calculates the values of other indicators used to assess the debt characteristics of an economy. The values of the calculated indicators show that two shocks have been felt during the analyzed period; the first is the economic-financial crisis triggered in 2008, and the other is the covid-19 pandemic. The results obtained show that Romania is vulnerable to the outburst of a foreign debt crisis, with a fairly high risk of having problems regarding the debt repayment. The methodology used joins the empirical analysis of statistical data and their interpretation, with the identification of correlations.

Cuvinte-cheie
Risk, foreign indebtedness, vulnerability, crisis