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![]() CHEN, Kai, DE SCHRIJVER, Evan, SIVARAJ, Sidharth, SERA, Francesco, SCOVRONICK, Noah C., JIANG, Leiwen, ROYE, Dominic, LAVIGNE, Eric, KYSELY, Jan, URBAN, Aleas, SCHNEIDER, Alexandra E., HUBER, Veronika, NOI, Autori, OVERCENCO, Ala. Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels. In: Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, pp. 1-13. ISSN 2041-1723. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z |
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Nature Communications | |
Volumul 15 / 2024 / ISSN 2041-1723 | |
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DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z | |
Pag. 1-13 | |
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Rezumat | |
Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%–0.4% at 1.5–3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population. |
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Cuvinte-cheie adult, Aged, aging, article, epidemiology, female, Greenhouse effect, human, mortality, temperature, warming |
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