Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels
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CHEN, Kai, DE SCHRIJVER, Evan, SIVARAJ, Sidharth, SERA, Francesco, SCOVRONICK, Noah C., JIANG, Leiwen, ROYE, Dominic, LAVIGNE, Eric, KYSELY, Jan, URBAN, Aleas, SCHNEIDER, Alexandra E., HUBER, Veronika, NOI, Autori, OVERCENCO, Ala. Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels. In: Nature Communications, 2024, vol. 15, pp. 1-13. ISSN 2041-1723. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z
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Nature Communications
Volumul 15 / 2024 / ISSN 2041-1723

Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z

Pag. 1-13

Chen Kai1, de Schrijver Evan2, Sivaraj Sidharth2, Sera Francesco, Scovronick Noah C.3, Jiang Leiwen45, Roye Dominic67, Lavigne Eric89, Kysely Jan1011, Urban Aleas1110, Schneider Alexandra E.12, Huber Veronika1213, Noi Autori, Overcenco Ala1415
 
1 Yale School of Public Health, New Haven,
2 University of Bern,
3 Universitatea Emory din Atlanta,
4 Shanghai University,
5 Population Council, New York,
6 CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health (CIBERESP),
7 Climate Research Foundation (FIC), Madrid,
8 Health Canada, Ottawa,
9 University of Ottawa,
10 Czech University of Life Sciences Prague,
11 Czech Academy of Sciences,
12 Helmholtz Center Munich German Research Center for Environmental Health,
13 Ludwig-Maximilians University,
14 National Agency for Public Health,
15 Ministerul Sănătăţii al Republicii Moldova
 
 
Disponibil în IBN: 14 martie 2024


Rezumat

Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%–0.4% at 1.5–3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population. 

Cuvinte-cheie
adult, Aged, aging, article, epidemiology, female, Greenhouse effect, human, mortality, temperature, warming