Conţinutul numărului revistei |
Articolul precedent |
Articolul urmator |
212 1 |
Ultima descărcare din IBN: 2022-04-11 08:35 |
Căutarea după subiecte similare conform CZU |
621.315.17 (8) |
Электротехника (1155) |
SM ISO690:2012 БАСМАНОВ, Владислав, ХОЛМАНСКИХ, Валерий. Особенности прогнозирования надёжности воздушных линий 6–10 кВ по статистическим данным об отказах и восстановлениях Басманов В.Г., Холманских В.М.. In: Problemele Energeticii Regionale, 2021, nr. 4(52), pp. 1-12. ISSN 1857-0070. DOI: https://doi.org/10.52254/1857-0070.2021.4-52.01 |
EXPORT metadate: Google Scholar Crossref CERIF DataCite Dublin Core |
Problemele Energeticii Regionale | ||||||
Numărul 4(52) / 2021 / ISSN 1857-0070 | ||||||
|
||||||
DOI:https://doi.org/10.52254/1857-0070.2021.4-52.01 | ||||||
CZU: 621.315.17 | ||||||
Pag. 1-12 | ||||||
|
||||||
Descarcă PDF | ||||||
Rezumat | ||||||
This work is aimed at forecasting justification of the failure time of the 6—10 kV overhead elecric lines (OEL) during the normalized period in its operation based on comparison with the statistics of failures and reconditionings on the previous intervals with the use of the OEL availability function, statistical availability coefficient, normalized forecasting interval and the accepted values of the availability coefficient on the forecasting interval. To achieve the goal set the OL is described as an object of a multiple action, its failure and reconditioning flows are accepted as the simplest Poisson, and for the theoretical analysis of the variation character in the availability coefficient, the probability theory methods along with a mass service were used. The most significant result is justification of the use for the forecasting of the OEL failure time of a new convenient exponential expression of its availability function on the normalized period being forecasted. Unlike the accepted in the theory of reliability the availability function with two parameters (average times of work and reconditionings), the proposed expression uses one parameter of distribution (virtual non-failure operating time). The significance of the results obtained consists in that controlling the dynamics of the variation in the statistical coefficient of availability of the OEL on the previous time intervals makes it possible to forecast its failure time during the forthcoming normalized periods of operation. |
||||||
Cuvinte-cheie overhead lines, coefficient of technical availability, forecasting normalized interval, virtual non-failure operating time, confidence probability, linii electrice aeriene, factor de disponibilitate tehnică, interval de predicție normat, timp virtual între defecțiuni, grad de confidență, воздушные линии, коэффициент технической готовности, нормируемый интервал прогнозирования, виртуальная наработка на отказ, доверительная вероятность |
||||||
|