Change in Climate of the Prut River Basin
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2020-11-21 15:41
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COROBOV, Roman, SIRODOEV, Ghennadi. Change in Climate of the Prut River Basin. In: MONITOX International Symposium “Deltas and Wetlands”, 15-17 septembrie 2019, Tulcea. Tulcea, România: C.I.T.D.D. Tulcea, 2019, pp. 59-60. ISBN 978-606-8896-00-7.
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MONITOX International Symposium “Deltas and Wetlands” 2019
Simpozionul "MONITOX International Symposium “Deltas and Wetlands”"
Tulcea, Romania, 15-17 septembrie 2019

Change in Climate of the Prut River Basin


Pag. 59-60

Corobov Roman1, Sirodoev Ghennadi21
 
1 ONG „Eco-Tiras Environmental Association of Dniester River Keepers",
2 Institute of Ecology and Geography
 
Disponibil în IBN: 25 martie 2020


Rezumat

There are growing evidences that climate warming results in a drying trend. The higher temperatures and more variable precipitations significantly alter the ecologically important attributes of wetlands hydrologic regime and exacerbate impacts on their ecosystems.Very likely, the increased seasonal variability of precipitation will increase the duration of low-flow and dry-spell periods in semiarid and arid regions, leading to reduced water quantity and quality. As to climate change impacts, the latest comprehensive integrated assessments have identified wetlands as ecosystems that are most vulnerable to climate variability and extremes; accordingly, the study of observed trends in regional climate as well as projections of its future behavior is considered as a mandatory dimension in any wetland related research. The present study aims to compare statistically the temperaturehumidity conditions in the Moldavian part of the Prut River basin in two climatic periods (1991-2018 vs. 1961-1990) and to present some climatic projections for the future. For each period, the average annual and seasonal values of air temperature and precipitation, as well as their linear trends were considered. As initial information, the observations at four weather stations of Moldova, located in the Prut basin below the Costești-Stânca hydropower plant, were used. It was shown that in 1991-2018 the annual mean (Tmean), maximal (Tmax) and minimal (Tmin) temperatures increased by 1.1, 1.2 and 1.0 °C, respectively, compared with 1961-1990. Tmean highest increase (1.7 °C) was observed in summer, the smallest – in autumn (0.5°C). Tmax also increased mostly in summer (by 1.9°C), and to a lesser extent – in autumn (by 0.3°C). The same picture was observed for Tmin: the greatest increase in summer (1.6°C), the smallest – in autumn (0.6°C). The precipitation change was extremely small: only 1 mm decrease per year: 15 mm in winter and 10 mm – in summer against 25 mm increase in autumn. The linear trends confirmed the results of the comparative analysis. Almost complete absence of a trend in annual Tmean in 1961-1990 was replaced by its sharp increase in subsequent years (~ 0.8 °C/decade).The positive trend of Tmin (~0.05 °C/decade), outlined in 1961-1990, has increased practically to 0.6 °C/decade later. Trends evolution is most pronounced for Tmax: from about 0.07 °C/decade negative to above 0.9 °C – positive. The slight negative trend of precipitation (~2 mm/year) has weakened to ~0.6 mm/year. An increase of air temperature, which was not compensated by equivalent precipitation increase, resulted in the inevitable strengthening of the climate aridity, already characteristic for the region. The process of drying is most pronounced in the April-August period. The likely projections of future climate were based on the latest high resolution (12.5 km) data set from a multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations, provided by the EUROCORDEX initiative for Europe. These simulations used the so-called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) of greenhouse gaze emissions that assume different radiative forcings on climate system: weak (RCP2.6), moderate (RCP4.5) and strong (RCP8.5) for two time horizons (2021-2050 and 2071-2100). The results of future climate simulations showed that in the first modeling period mean annual air temperature in this part of the Prut basin can increase, depending on the level of radiating forcing, from 0.1 ºC to 1.6 ºC in comparison with 1970-2000, taken as a baseline climate in this modeling experiment. Increase of temperature in the second period will be more significant: from 0.2 ºC to 4.4 ºC. At the same time, change in precipitation will be minor and, most importantly, with a great uncertainty in the resul Acknowledgement: The current work was achieved in the frame of the Joint Operational Black Sea Programme 2014-2020, Project BSB 165 „HydroEcoNex”, with the financial assistance of the European Union.ts.