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621.311 (218) |
Электротехника (1153) |
SM ISO690:2012 БЫКОВА, Eлена, БЕРЗАН, Владимир. Методические подходы при построении краткосрочных прогнозов топливно-энергетических балансов. In: Energetica Moldovei. Aspecte regionale de dezvoltare, Ed. Ediția III, 2016, 29 septembrie - 1 octombrie 2016, Chișinău. Chișinău, Republica Moldova: Institutul de Energetică al Academiei de Științe a Moldovei, 2016, Ediția III, pp. 18-27. ISBN 978-9975-4123-5-3. |
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Energetica Moldovei. Aspecte regionale de dezvoltare Ediția III, 2016 |
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Conferința "Energetica Moldovei" Ediția III, 2016, Chișinău, Moldova, 29 septembrie - 1 octombrie 2016 | ||||||
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CZU: 621.311 | ||||||
Pag. 18-27 | ||||||
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Continued growth in demand for energy resources has made the issues of the fuel and energy balance (EB) and its prediction actual. This article describes the methodological approaches and experience in building a short-term forecast of energy balance for Moldova. Energy Balance Sectors include the gross consumption, import, export, production, stock changes, transformation input and output, losses, final consumption by sub-sectors (industrial, household etc). Groups of fuels "Natural Gas", "Electricity" and "Heat" represents one column. Groups "Coal", "Oil" and "Biofuels" include different types of fuels. Determination of the forecast values is based on the known time series. It uses three methodological approaches. Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is used if the series of values have pronounced change in dynamics. Last Known Value (LKV) is used for series of values with small quantities. Last Known Structure (LKS) is used if the values on the bottom line sector are poorly expressed by the dynamic change, but the structure within sector remains roughly the same proportions. Energy balance forecast is built using the described approaches with algorithm, including Energy balance, Commodity Balance, Prospective Energy Flow Chart. Fuel consumptions trends are analyzed. Forecast quality analysis is performed by comparing of predicted and the actual EB values (for 2014). The difference between them was within 2-11%. The quality of forecasting is satisfactory, and the methodology can be used in the future. |
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Cuvinte-cheie топливо, баланс, прогноз |
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