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SM ISO690:2012 HINEV, Olga. Rolul așteptărilor inflaționiste în cadrul procesului inflaționist din Republica Moldova. In: Dezvoltarea economico-socială durabilă a euroregiunilor şi a zonelor transfrontaliere, 30 octombrie 2020, Iași, România. Iași, România: Performantica, 2020, Vol.37, pp. 255-263. ISBN 978-606-685-742-0. |
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Dezvoltarea economico-socială durabilă a euroregiunilor şi a zonelor transfrontaliere Vol.37, 2020 |
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Conferința "Dezvoltarea economico-socială durabilă a euroregiunilor şi a zonelor transfrontaliere" Iași, România, Romania, 30 octombrie 2020 | ||||||
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JEL: C20, E31, E43, E52 | ||||||
Pag. 255-263 | ||||||
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The objective of this research is to include the inflationary expectations in the estimating model of the inflationary process and, empirically, to demonstrate their impact on inflation evolution. Following the study of the specialized literature, it was argued the need of credibility in anchoring inflation expectations from the perspective of high level of independence, transparency and accountability of the central bank. The methodological and practical approach of the research was based on the estimation of a VAR econometric model with the inclusion of adaptive inflation expectations in order to assess their impact on the evolution of the inflationary process in the Republic of Moldova. Assuming that the Republic of Moldova is a small economy, dependent on the energy resources and food international prices, so that the inflationary process is volatile and vulnerable to shocks from the external macroeconomic environment, the external variables were taken into account, such as oil and food international prices, along with those from the domestic environment - monetary policy rate, money supply, real GDP and the adaptive inflation expectations. Following the research, we concluded that the estimated VAR model can be considered representative and valid. At the same time, the Granger causality test results reflect that the adaptive inflationary expectations cause the evolution of the consumer price index in the Republic of Moldovaduring the analysed period. |
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Cuvinte-cheie Central Bank, inflation, inflation expectations, forecast |
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