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SM ISO690:2012 ГИНСАРЬ, В.Н. Анализ информативности ряда среднесрочных предвестников сильных землетрясений зоны Вранча
. In: Buletinul Institutului de Geologie şi Seismologie al AŞM, 2007, nr. 2, pp. 8-18. ISSN 1857-0046. |
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Buletinul Institutului de Geologie şi Seismologie al AŞM | ||||||
Numărul 2 / 2007 / ISSN 1857-0046 | ||||||
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Pag. 8-18 | ||||||
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With the purpose to reveal seismological precursors before strong intermediate depth
earthquakes, generated in Vrancea zone, it was made the approbation of some elements of the
medium-term earthquake prediction complex algorithm. This algorithm was developed by G.A.
Sobolev and A.D. Zavyalov in 1982-2006.
For five strong earthquakes, observed in a zone Vrancea in the period between 1935 and
1991, are investigated retrospectively such parameters-precursors as Kср - concentration criterion
of fracturing, ξb - dimensionless parameter, describing the statistical consequence of the b-value
deviation from its long-term values, ξn - dimensionless parameter describing the statistical
consequence of the seismic rate deviation. On each of three parameters are determined an alarm
threshold and probability of the precursors realization.
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