Анализ информативности ряда среднесрочных предвестников сильных землетрясений зоны Вранча
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2022-12-29 05:06
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ГИНСАРЬ, В.Н. Анализ информативности ряда среднесрочных предвестников сильных землетрясений зоны Вранча . In: Buletinul Institutului de Geologie şi Seismologie al AŞM, 2007, nr. 2, pp. 8-18. ISSN 1857-0046.
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Buletinul Institutului de Geologie şi Seismologie al AŞM
Numărul 2 / 2007 / ISSN 1857-0046

Анализ информативности ряда среднесрочных предвестников сильных землетрясений зоны Вранча

Pag. 8-18

Гинсарь В.Н
 
Институт геологии и сейсмологии АНМ
 
 
Disponibil în IBN: 29 noiembrie 2013


Rezumat

With the purpose to reveal seismological precursors before strong intermediate depth earthquakes, generated in Vrancea zone, it was made the approbation of some elements of the medium-term earthquake prediction complex algorithm. This algorithm was developed by G.A. Sobolev and A.D. Zavyalov in 1982-2006. For five strong earthquakes, observed in a zone Vrancea in the period between 1935 and 1991, are investigated retrospectively such parameters-precursors as Kср - concentration criterion of fracturing, ξb - dimensionless parameter, describing the statistical consequence of the b-value deviation from its long-term values, ξn - dimensionless parameter describing the statistical consequence of the seismic rate deviation. On each of three parameters are determined an alarm threshold and probability of the precursors realization.