Пространственно-временные вариации суммарного сейсмического момента в зоне Вранча
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ГИНСАРЬ, В.Н. Пространственно-временные вариации суммарного сейсмического момента в зоне Вранча . In: Buletinul Institutului de Geologie şi Seismologie al AŞM, 2006, nr. 2, pp. 51-61. ISSN 1857-0046.
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Buletinul Institutului de Geologie şi Seismologie al AŞM
Numărul 2 / 2006 / ISSN 1857-0046

Пространственно-временные вариации суммарного сейсмического момента в зоне Вранча

Pag. 51-61

Гинсарь В.Н
 
Институт геологии и сейсмологии АНМ
 
 
Disponibil în IBN: 16 decembrie 2013


Rezumat

The cumulative seismic moment, ∑Mo, calculated for Vrancea zone intermediate earthquakes (60-180 km), are analyzed in time (retrospectively) and in space. The main goal of research is to reveal peculiarities for the long-term prediction of seismic process evolution as an assumption of continual and discrete seismicity models. Three long-term cycles in a seismic process evolution are revealed. Duration of each of cycles is about 300 years, last cycle is not completed. If the tendency is steady, in nearest 50 years in zone Vrancea can be realized earthquakes, having cumulative seismic moment on the average 3.5·1027 din cm. The interpretation of ∑Mo distribution, as the characteristics of zone seismic potential in the whole and her separate layers, represents additional arguments in favor of as continual and so discrete models of seismicity. Therefore at a present level and volume of Vrancea instrumental earthquakes data, it is possible to speak only about compromise model, combining elements of both alternatives. It follows and from this paper, and from the brief review made in article.