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SM ISO690:2012 ГИНСАРЬ, В.Н. Пространственно-временные вариации суммарного
сейсмического момента в зоне Вранча
. In: Buletinul Institutului de Geologie şi Seismologie al AŞM, 2006, nr. 2, pp. 51-61. ISSN 1857-0046. |
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Buletinul Institutului de Geologie şi Seismologie al AŞM | ||||||
Numărul 2 / 2006 / ISSN 1857-0046 | ||||||
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Pag. 51-61 | ||||||
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The cumulative seismic moment, ∑Mo, calculated for Vrancea zone intermediate
earthquakes (60-180 km), are analyzed in time (retrospectively) and in space. The main goal of
research is to reveal peculiarities for the long-term prediction of seismic process evolution as an
assumption of continual and discrete seismicity models.
Three long-term cycles in a seismic process evolution are revealed. Duration of each of
cycles is about 300 years, last cycle is not completed. If the tendency is steady, in nearest 50 years
in zone Vrancea can be realized earthquakes, having cumulative seismic moment on the average
3.5·1027 din cm.
The interpretation of ∑Mo distribution, as the characteristics of zone seismic potential in
the whole and her separate layers, represents additional arguments in favor of as continual and so
discrete models of seismicity. Therefore at a present level and volume of Vrancea instrumental
earthquakes data, it is possible to speak only about compromise model, combining elements of
both alternatives. It follows and from this paper, and from the brief review made in article.
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