Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability
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LEE , Jae-young, OVERCENCO, Ala. Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability. In: Environment International, 2019, nr. 131, p. 0. ISSN 0160-4120. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2019.105027
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Environment International
Numărul 131 / 2019 / ISSN 0160-4120

Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2019.105027

Pag. 0-0

Lee Jae-young1, Overcenco Ala23
 
1 Seoul National University,
2 National Agency for Public Health,
3 Ministerul Sănătăţii al Republicii Moldova
 
 
Disponibil în IBN: 14 august 2019


Rezumat

An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010–2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (−0.92%p/°C) and Australia (−0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.

Cuvinte-cheie
climate change, mortality, projection, Regional variation, vulnerability