Geographical Variations of the Minimum Mortality Temperature at a Global Scale
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TOBIAS, Aurelio, HASHIZUME, Masahiro, NOI, Autori, HONDA, Yasushi, OVERCENCO, Ala. Geographical Variations of the Minimum Mortality Temperature at a Global Scale. In: Environmental Epidemiology, 2021, nr. 5(5), pp. 1-e169. ISSN -. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1097/EE9.0000000000000169
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Environmental Epidemiology
Numărul 5(5) / 2021 / ISSN - /ISSNe 2474-7882

Geographical Variations of the Minimum Mortality Temperature at a Global Scale

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1097/EE9.0000000000000169

Pag. 1-e169

Tobias Aurelio1, Hashizume Masahiro2, Noi Autori, Honda Yasushi3, Overcenco Ala4
 
1 Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Barcelona,
2 University of Tokyo,
3 University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba,
4 National Agency for Public Health
 
 
Disponibil în IBN: 22 februarie 2022


Rezumat

Background: Minimum mortality temperature (MMT) is an important indicator to assess the temperature-mortality association, indicating long-term adaptation to local climate. Limited evidence about the geographical variability of the MMT is available at a global scale. Methods: We collected data from 658 communities in 43 countries under different climates. We estimated temperature-mortality associations to derive the MMT for each community using Poisson regression with distributed lag nonlinear models. We investigated the variation in MMT by climatic zone using a mixed-effects meta-analysis and explored the association with climatic and socioeconomic indicators. Results: The geographical distribution of MMTs varied considerably by country between 14.2 and 31.1 ºC decreasing by latitude. For climatic zones, the MMTs increased from alpine (13.0 ºC) to continental (19.3 ºC), temperate (21.7 ºC), arid (24.5 ºC), and tropical (26.5 ºC). The MMT percentiles (MMTPs) corresponding to the MMTs decreased from temperate (79.5th) to continental (75.4th), arid (68.0th), tropical (58.5th), and alpine (41.4th). The MMTs indreased by 0.8 ºC for a 1 ºC rise in a community's annual mean temperature, and by 1 ºC for a 1 ºC rise in its SD. While the MMTP decreased by 0.3 centile points for a 1 ºC rise in a community's annual mean temperature and by 1.3 for a 1 ºC rise in its SD. Conclusions: The geographical distribution of the MMTs and MMTPs is driven mainly by the mean annual temperature, which seems to be a valuable indicator of overall adaptation across populations. Our results suggest that populations have adapted to the average temperature, although there is still more room for adaptation.

Cuvinte-cheie
adaptation, climate, Distributed lag nonlinear models, Minimum mortality temperature, Multi-city, Multi-country, Time-series