Climate change is associated with numerous and complex adverse effects on environmental components, including forest ecosystems. The core area Cărbuna (territory with a special value for the conservation of habitats, species and landscapes) of National Ecological Network - is located in Ialoveni district, Cărbuna village, Republic of Moldova and is represented by valuable natural-fundamental Quercus petraea and Carpinus orientalis stands with Quercus pubescens, Q. pedunculiflora, as well as a string of rare plants. At the same time, the Cărbuna Landscape Reserve presents a transition area from mesophilic forests - to xeromorphic/arid forests, which is of interest in studies on the possible impact of aridization on native forest species.
The expression of the vulnerability of the forest ecosystems in the region, towards the climate changes, was made by calculating, mapping and interpreting the data of the eco-climatic indices: FAI (Forest Aridity Index); IM (De Martonne Aridity Index); EQ (Ellenberg Quotient); FASI (Forest Stress Aridity Index). In general, geographical latitude and absolute altitude are the main physical - geographical factors that influence the distribution of these indices, but on smaller areas, also, adjacent parameters - with influences on climate (landforms, slopes, exposure etc.).
For the territory of the Cărbuna Landscape Reserve, it was found that: FAI values indicate favorable climatic conditions for the growth and development of arid / xeromorphic forests, characteristic of the forest-steppe; IM values - frame the given territory in the area with a medium degree of vulnerability of forests - with tendencies towards a high degree of vulnerability to the phenomenon of climate aridization; EQ values identify the future transition from mesophilous deciduous forests to ecosystems with a predominance of xerophytes and xero-mesophytes species; and the FASI values - characterize, only on restricted areas, the arid climatic conditions areas, associated with several risks - droughts, fires, pest invasions, etc.
Thus, the forest ecosystems in the territory of the Cărbuna Landscape Reserve will be susceptible to future climate aridization, the vulnerability being depending on the character, magnitude and rate of climate change to which the ecosystems will be exposed, their sensitivity and adaptive capacity. At the current rate of climate change, chorological changes of species are also possible - by widening the range of southern and southeastern elements (Quercus pubescens, Q. pedunculiflora, Carpinus orientalis) and decreasing area for northern and western elements (Quercus petraea, Q. robur).